5 essential things to know about your weather forecasts

Mass holiday and climate agencies in the US this week

This week hundreds of people lost their work in the national administration of the ocean and the atmosphere, which includes the national weather service. Season the heavy peak of the weather is above us, and the Hurricane season approaches. With that context, here are five essential things to know about your weather forecasts and the people who make them.

Source of data, forecasts and warnings

It is amazing to see posts and comments suggesting that we do not need the national weather service because we have applications, television stations, favorite social media impacts, etc. For me, that’s like saying, “Why do we need potato farmers when I can just get chips in my fast food?” NOAA and the national weather service are important weather information provider, weather forecast patterns, upper atmospheric conditions through weather balloons, satellite images, doppler-polymorrhic radar, ocean observations and more.

NWS offices and centers across the country offer critical forecasts and warnings that find their way on TV, websites and your phone apps. The next time you receive a tornado or flood warning, it is important to remember that it came from NWS. This summer, when we face another Hurricane Harvey (2017) or Hurricane Milton (2022), consider that the National Hurricane Center is providing the latest updates and data on our security.

NOAA and NWS also provide an important ecosystem through laboratories, institutes and funds that lead to new types of observation systems, weather model advances and better ways to consume risk information. Remember, many people try to understand the possibilities of rainfall, the hurricane cone or the difference between “vision” and “warning”.

In recent years, federal weather and industry weather communities have worked closely. Private companies are offering some NOAA data currents, and many companies add value to NOAA or NWS data for special clients or customers. As someone working in the Washington DC area for years, it was illuminating to see how cooperative they were NOAA, NWS and the private sector. The cuts in NOAA and NW are likely to affect the private sector because they literally work together in offices, laboratories and centers.

Public good

Weather information is a “public good”. I see it in a way similar to my local fire or police station. When there is an emergency, I know they will be there. When considering the importance of information about the weather and forecasts for public safety, aviation, agriculture, health, energy production, water supply and national security, I want it to be there. For about $ 4 for the US resident, NWS offers critical information that punches much higher than its weight. In fact, NWS has actually been under -financed chronically given its level of importance to the nation. NOAA has periodically experienced errors in personnel or problems with computing systems.

Although private companies are certainly on the table now for data security and even the numerical weather modeling, the infrastructure needed for weather forecasting is massive. It includes polar and geostationary orbit satellites, a network of radar, observation skills, and capable workforce. Our homeland and national security functions are appropriately concentrated in federal jurisdiction (with industry partners). I see the weather forecast and warnings similarly. The federal sector can take that degree of needs and absorb any potential risk or obligation.

Stress

As I wrote before, colleagues NWS and NOAA take an involuntary stress in the name of the nation. They are true patriots. These professionals diagnose and predict storms that they know they are likely to change their lives or entire regions. When I see the potential for a storm like Hurricane Ian (2022) or a massive tornado output in the southeast, a feeling of sinking feels in my intestine. Professionalism exhibited by NWS and NOAA professionals is an unwavering event. We know that it requires a mental number based on recent studies. To make things worse, meteorologists are increasingly dealing with hostility and threats simply to make predictions or explain the theories of the strange plot.

I just read about two Hurricane NOAA hunters who were allowed to go into purification. These colleagues literally risk their lives to collect information that can improve Hurricane forecasts. The stress level is already high when colleagues are treating high -risk weather events with high risk while morality is growing low given the latest uncertainties. This combination may begin to get its number as we approach the peak of heavy weather and the Hurricane season.

cOMMITMENT

Even with the high level of stress, NWS and NOAA employees are always there for us. NWS weather forecasters are considered “essential”, so although they are at work through government closures or seizures. There are numerous examples of NWS employees walking to work in bladder or providing important Hurricane warnings even when the storm is on top. As I wrote years ago, “during disasters like Hurricane Michael, we rightly thank the first responses, emergency managers and volunteers. They do critical work on the first lines of recovery and storm aid. However, I am not sure that people of mental stress are dealing with information.”

skill

The last thing I would point out is that the meteorologists of our nation are some of the best in the world. Our weather models, radar networks, satellites, observation networks and human capital are elite. People often joke or complain about the accuracy of weather forecasts. However, if you go through misunderstanding, the challenges that interpret the potential prediction, the selection prejudices, the excessive support of information on unrealistic applications and expectations, the data show that weather forecasts are quite good.

As an example, the graph below shows amazing improvement in Hurricane Trail Forecasts over the past few decades. Such an improvement saves life, property and money. Moreover, new observation systems have practically eliminated plane crashes associated with wind shear, which were widespread decades ago. I can continue with many other examples, however our field has been mistreated due to an occasional cooking it rains.